The Tory Anarchist

The Washington Post has an update on the declining fortunes of the House Republicans:

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now has 42 Republican districts, including [Virginia Republican Thelma] Drake's, on his list of competitive races. Last September, he had 26 competitive GOP districts, and Drake's wasn't on the list. "That's a pretty significant increase," he said. "The national atmospherics are making long shots suddenly less long."

The Dems need a net pickup of 15 seats to take back the House.

A few places have speculated on what happens if the Democrats take control this year with a slim majority. Does the GOP stage a comeback in 2008, perhaps with John McCain at the head of the ticket? My guess is that, in fact, no: despite his ongoing reinvention as a more conventional Republican, McCain's appeal to voters in 2008 will, I think, still be distinct from his party's. He would likely win on the strength of crossover voters, who will not necessarily be voting for GOP congressmen. I suspect as well — again, his reinvention notwithstanding — that there'll be enough ticked-off conservatives irritated by a McCain nomination that a demoralized base could also harm Republicans in '08 House races.

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 20th, 2006 at 6:30 pm and is filed under Elections, Politics. You can subscribe via RSS 2.0 feed to this post's comments. You can comment below, or link to this permanent URL from your own site. Your comments will appear immediately, but I reserve the right to delete innapropriate comments.